My apologies for my sub .500 picks last week, I had no idea Andy Dalton would play worse then the spawn of Mark Sanchez and Brandon Weedon in a playoff game but such is life. As I mentioned in my weekly recap, even though Dalton was doing all he could to lose this game the Bengals were still in it late and had he actually be able to complete a pass 99% of decent QBs make on the reg. via that toss to AJ Green late, this game is likely a W for the Bengals. Alas, due to his incompetant boobery I was dropped to .333 instead of the respectable .667, but lets see if I can make up for it here…
HOME TEAM IN CAPS…
BRONZE PICK
Seahawks (+3) OVER FALCONS- Even with the loss of thier star Defensive Lineman Chris Clemons to a torn ACL, this game is too big for the Seahawks to lose. Although they are known as a “home-team” Seattle has played solid ball away from home of late and at various points throughout the season they have looked like the leagues best team. With no running game the Falcons are going to have to throw, and unfortunately for them are going up against the league’s best secondary. With the Clemons loss the game is prolly a pick ‘em even though I have no faith in the Falcons, but getting points the money must be on the Seahawks.
SILVER PICK
Ravens (+9.5) OVER BRONCOS- If Ray Lewis wasn’t playing I would probably stay away from this one, but with him in (and his obnoxious overkill aside) I must take the points and go with the Ravens. Look, I am not saying the Broncos won’t win this game, but there should be no reason that the Broncos who have not beaten anyone of consequence all season should be getting 9.5 points against a Baltimore team who are better then the Broncos on Special Teams and with Lewis in, on par with them on Defense.
SPICY ACTION BONUS #1: If you are looking to give yourself a heart attack, I would recommend taking Baltimore with the points, but then hedging that bet with a Money line pick of the Broncos. If you put 25 on the Ravens points and 40 on the Broncos moneyline you are covering yourself against every possibility and if the Broncos don’t blow the Ravens out you are sitting pretty. Sure you could be out 15 bucks if the Broncos pull off the upset, but its 15 bucks live a litte.
GOLD PICK
Patriots (MONEYLINE) OVER HOUSTON- You might be asking yourself where the genius in this pick is because New England is at home, for the most part they are finally back to health and they beat down the Texans the last time these two squads met. WELL THAT’S THE POINT, Gold Picks are supposed to be picks you are likely to win. If you put down 150 on the moneyline here you are set to make anywhere from 30-42 bucks. This is the last no brainer game for the Patriots all season (knock wood) and aside from betting against the Dallas Cowboys in a must win game, its probably the safest bet in sports.
SPICY ACTION BONUS #2: PATRIOTS (+9.5) OVER Texans. I am never a huge fan of giving points like this, but this is a statement game for them. They want to win this game as much as possible so that they initidate their likely opponent the Broncos should they have to travel to thier house to play them. If you were to put down 25 on the Patriots spread you are looking at a pay day of about 67 bucks (also playing the Moneyline) should they blow out the Texans. The Texans do have some motivation in this game, but even if they can cover you still make money if the Patriots get the W.
GOOD LUCK AND PLEASE GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY
