Well it was bound to happen. After killing the picks for weeks 3 and 4, in week 5 we hit a wall. To be fair to go 3-2 is certainly not terrible, I mean that is still 60% and I heard that if you are anywhere near 54% making picks you are doing well. So lets hope 60% is as bad as it gets (knock wood). However, before moving on to this week’s picks I will say that we were a wide open Antonio Brown drop in the endzone and an improbable Saints comeback (I still can’t believe that helmet to helmet call on the interception return) from another perfect weekend. Oh well there’s always this week, so here goes…
AROUND THE LEAGUE (HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
Oakland Raiders (+9.5) OVER ATLANTA FALCONS
I do not care that ‘Matty No Ice’ is 5-0 right now. Until the Falcons absolutely destroy a notable opponent, I think everyone needs to stop giving the Falcons the New England Patriots treatment. Furthermore, the Falcons were 1 miracle endzone launch away from losing against 1-4 Carolina at home and barely beat the Redskins last week who played most of the game without rookie phenom RG3. And although I am still pessimistic on RG3 longterm, the Falcons should be at least 3-2 right now and probably worse than. It is my conclusion therefore, that even though they are playing at home, it is highly unlikely that they beat the Raiders (who are also coming off a bye week) by more than 10.
Detroit Lions (+4) OVER PHILLY EAGLES
While I successfully predicted that the Eagles would lose last week, as I previously mentioned I had no way of knowing that Antonio Brown would drop that gift wrapped touchdown in the endzone and thus the Steelers would not cover the spread. And while I apologize again for the missed pick, I am willing to make it up to you by picking the Lions to cover the spread in this one. Look, I know the Eagles are pissed following the loss and looking to rebound against this disappointing Lions team, but not only are the Lions coming off the bye this week, they are actually much better than their record indicates. I am not saying the Eagles won’t win this game, with their luck they will probably win the game with some miracle play in the final two minutes, but I highly doubt they will beat the Lions by more than 4. Furthermore, Vick is rattled right now, so if Suh or anyone else on the Lions front four can put pressure on him the Lions could easily win this one outright.
BRONZE PICK
Green Bay (+3.5) OVER HOUSTON TEXANS
Like the Atlanta Falcons I trust nothing about the Houston Texans. Sure they have looked strong this year (and even last year at points), but until they beat a notable opponent or win a meaningful game in the playoffs I will continue to have no love for the Texans. Until they do either of the aforementioned what it tells me is that they can lose to anyone at anytime, especially a good team. Green Bay is a good team. I don’t care what their record says they are, you have to remember that this is the team that was the heavy favorite to win the Superbowl this year, and considering they already have one, they are a force to be reckoned with. Adding to the case for the Packers, is that they lost in a horrible way last week and are looking to get back on track with a vengeance. Do not be surprised if Green Bay wins this one in a big way.
SILVER PICK
Cincy Bengals (-1) OVER CLEVELAND BROWNS
What kind of a world do we live in where the Cleveland Browns are favoured to win a game over anybody? Seriously, I ask you. I don’t care if the Bengals lost 10 games in a row, how can this Bengals squad by the underdog against this rag-tag Browns squad. How is that possible? Unless Peyton Manning’s ghost envelops the body of Josh Weedon or Joshua Cribbs returns 5 touchdowns, I cannot see how the Bengals lose this one even if they are playing on the road. Ok, before I really upset the gambling Gods with this rant, I will quickly say pick the Bengals….and pray…
GOLD PICK
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-1) OVER Denver Broncos
I know the Chargers gave up a big lead last week and lost, but that game was a total writeoff. Not only did the refs give the Saints every call down the stretch, but as I previously stated, the Chargers were one dubious helmet to helmet call from being up 31-14 in the 2nd half. However, the Saints used Drew Brees’ record night and Sean Payton’s return as catalysts for this crazy unpredictable game. As for the Broncos, it was more of the same last week. Peyton Manning sadly is a shell of his former self and the rest of his squad is getting disillusioned by the minute. Therefore, to pick between a Chargers squad that lost in an unbelievable fashion and a Broncos squad that lost in predictable fashion the smart money has to be on the Chargers right? Especially since the Chargers are playing at home and it’s still October. I must be missing something for the line to be this close. If I am not however, feel safe and take the Chargers in a heartbeat.
GOOD LUCK AND AGAIN, PLEASE GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY
