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NFL PICKS- WEEK 3: CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND

Ok with less than twenty minutes in the early game, I will dispense with the apologies and just post the picks.

HOME TEAM IN CAPS

Patriots (+5.5) OVER BRONCOS

Despite the score in the Indy game last week, the game was actually a lot closer than the final score would indicate. When the obvious tripping call by the Patriots was missed, the wheels completely fell off the Colts train. The Colts had to overcome a lot, and were still in the game except despite the obstacles. However, this week should be different. This week the Patriots are somehow the underdogs and I cannot recall the last time the Pats were actually the underdogs in a game and didn’t cover or win the game outright. I personally think the Pats will win this game late outright, but not to worry they are getting 5.5. points. Denver despite being the favorite were a missed 3-19 conversion in the fourth away from melting down in familiar Peyton Manning playoff fashion and if it was not for that converted 3 and 19 that they only converted due to injuries in the Chargers secondary, they would not even be playing in this game, as Rivers would have marched down the field, scored and the Broncos and shaky ground likely lose the game in Overtime. Point being, the Broncos were lucky to get the win and avoid the familiar Manning meltdown late. In this game take the points, and if feeling ballsy (but still sensible) take the Pats for the outright win.

49ers (+3.5) OVER SEAHAWKS

Look I know the history. The 49ers have gotten absolutely smoked the last two times they were in Seattle. However, people are only doomed to fail if they do not correct their past mistakes and the 49ers appear smart enough and talented enough to correct the problems that have befallen them in the past. It is very hard for me to envision a scenario in which the 49ers drop another big game to Seattle even if they and their fans have been known to literally cause earthquakes. This game figures to be close and I believe there is a chance the 49ers can win outright. Even if not there are points being given and for the first time the 49ers are a complete team and seem to have struck the perfect balance in all three phases of the game. Be smart and take the points.

Ok so here we are, less than 24 hrs from another weekend of NFL PLAYOFF football. Last week was wall to wall so I will try to write as much as I can and weave them into my picks and do so as quickly as possible because I am running mad late….

So without further waiting here are the picks and HOME TEAM IN CAPS

Saints (+8) OVER SEAHAWKS

There is little questions the Seahawks aren’t solid and they boast the best record in the NFC. HOWEVER, I don’t believe it will be likely that the Saints with Sean Payton and Drew Brees will get blown out by the Seahawks, even if the game is in Seattle, twice in one season. In fact, I think the Saints will put together some magic and have a real shot at winning this game outright if their rag-tag defense can step up one time. Plus I think this whole Percy Harvin situation has become a distraction. However, on the plus side for gamblers everywhere, the Saints don’t even have to win for you to cash in, but the line son as you are getting 8 points!

49ers (pick) OVER PANTHERS

You may not know it, but San Fran has quietly become the second hottest team in the league. Ok so the number one hottest team are the Panthers, but San Fran has the pedigree and they looked super solid against the Packers last week. Yes, the Panthers have a suffocating D, but that’s pretty much all they have save a receiver-less Cam Newton. Not only does San Fran have D but they have a devastating and Michael Crabtree infused offense and a maniacal head coach all looking for revenge after their one point loss a couple of weeks ago.  This game screams 49ers so do it up right.

Chargers (+10) OVER BRONCOS

I don’t get how a team that beat another team that was at home can be a 10 point underdog in the exact same set of circumstances a couple of weeks later when a) they just thrashed the conference’s 3-seed who were undefeated at home and b) their opponents this week have a quarterback who stinks both in the playoffs and in the cold. Out of all the hoopla made over what a great fit Manning was for the Broncos, no one ever pointed out that even if they are the #1 seed , that they would have to play 3 outdoor games in the cold during the playoffs (with this year being 4 now that the Bowl is in NY). To be honest I think the Chargers snake this game late and win it outright, but again even if they don’t they have ten points to play with. Be smart take the Bolts.

Indy (+7.5) OVER PATRIOTS

Look I get that there is no team deadlier than the Pats in their first game of the playoffs. The Patriots have dominated the decade and even though they have not won a title since 2005 despite all their hype, there is something classic about these no-nonsense Randy Moss-less Pats. Not only that but they do not have to worry about playing against a tough Defense (something Brady hates) and they thrashed the Colts last year. But you know what they don’t have going against them? Andrew Luck. I have gone on the record last year that Luck should have won the MVP in his rookie year for what he did for the Colts. And this year? Well they should give him 2! I know the talking heads Luck like to slurp Manning and rag on Luck for his lack of eye popping stats, but as Cosmo Kramer once said, poise counts. And Luck has that in spades. He is leading a team with no other star other than Robert Mathis not only into the playoffs with an amazing record, but doing it while beating some of the most hyped and record-besting teams in the league (San Fran, Seattle, Denver, KC). The only real contender the Colts have not beaten is New England. Can they do it this weekend?I don’t know, but I’m gonna find out.

Actually I do know, or at least I think I do, and I say they win this game outright with a devastating 4^th quarter drive by Luck or in some kind of miraculous blow out should Brady be forced to leave the game. Either way, highly unlikely they lose by more than 7.5.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND PLEASE GAMBLE RESPONSiBILY