I will dispense with the apologies this week. You know the drill by now, I got really busy that was less important than posting my picks, and did not end up posting my picks.
I will state for the record however that I had a strong feeling that Indy would win outright and Dallas would cover the spread against Denver. I hope that you bet and made dividends on those picks, but in case you did not I am here this week prepared to atone…
As always home team in CAPS
PICK 1
BILLS (+7) OVER Bengals
Yes, I am aware like the rest of you that the Bengals beat the Patriots last week, but that win must be put in context. Not only was New England playing without its star receiving threats, their good-so-far replacements were terrible and more stonehanded than Braylon Edwards with both his arms broken. Add to this the running game was absent, the Bengals got a miracle fumble recovery on the Pats final drive and the game was played in a hurricane and you can see why that win is suspect. The Bills however proven to be a deceptively competent squad this year and do not appear to be a team that will lose to the Bengals by more than a TD. Take the points and take the Bills.
PICK 2
Eagles (-1) OVER BUCS
I know Michael Vick is likely not to play and that alters the uptempo offense, but given how things have gone for the Eagles this season that might not be a bad thing. Add to this that the Bucs are probably the biggest headcase team in the NFL right now, who just jettisoned their franchise quarterback for nothng in return and you have all the makings of a Philly road win. Plus Karma will always be against a guy like Greg Schianno, so feel happy and confident taking the Eagles.
BRONZE PICK
Jaguars (+26.5) OVER BRONCOS
Let me get this straight right from the beginning, there is nothing I like about this pick. The Broncos looked unstoppable on offense last week against the consistently atroicious Dallas secondary, and I would be hard pressed to explain how Jacksonville could score more then 14 against anyone. However, one thing that Jacksonville has going for it, is the fact that there has been a very big online fight brewing online between the Jags and the Broncos players this week. Therefore, if the Jags players who have shown no heart this year thus far, go into mile high with some pride there is a decent chance that they do not lose by close to four touchdowns. Also, there is a chance that much like Braveheart, the Broncos fans will begin to chant mercy and the Jags can roll off some garbage time scores to beat the spread. I plunked down 3 bucks on the Moneyline for the Jags to win outright and it pays 65 bucks. There’s a chance….
SILVER PICK
Giants (+9.5) OVER BEARS
Things have been grim for the Giants for a while now, and in the last couple of weeks they have only gotten worse. Not only has Eli Manning turned into the second coming of Jamarcus Russell, but the run game for the Giants is a total catastrophe and the defense has not been able to stop anybody. Do I think they will go into Chicago and beat a team that blew a game they could have won last week? No, but I do think the Giants have enough pride, pedigree and a solid enough receiving core to cover the spread. Plus the Giants seem to play better in prime time, and I think Chicago is going through enough internal strife right now for the game to be competitive. Be cool fool, take the points and bet against a team that has won 2 Superbowls in 6 years going 0-6.
GOLD PICK
Redskins (+6) OVER DALLAS
I honestly have no idea who makes up these lines. When has Dallas ever beaten an opponent (let alone a divisional opponent by more than 6 points. Look I love the Cowboys, and if they ever made it to the Superbowl again I would do everything I could to be on the 50 yard line, but their mojo has been warped for years. Not only have I never seen Dallas win a game they were supposed to or had to have in the last 7 years, they routinely blow games other teams would have in the bag. There is an old football saying that states that good teams find a way to win games, and bad teams always find a way to lose them. While it was admirable the way Dallas took it to Denver last week, rallied to come back and was in the game right down to the final moments, but as usual Dallas found a way to lose a game they should have won. And I know that the 24hr news cycle, social media and all of the Cowboys were pounding their fists on the table about how Tony Romo let another one go, but this game was not on him, at least entirely. The blame should rightfully divided into three parts, one for Romo, one for the Dallas defense (specifically their pass defense, which somehow finds a way to look worse every year) and their coaching. While Romo will always be Romo, and the defense can come to play some days (rarely, in the case of their secondary), something must be done about the head coaching down there in big D.
While watching the game with my girl, I was running out of fingers counting all the boneheaded mistakes Dallas was making. For example, while it was generally moronic for Dallas not to have been running the ball more all game thus chewing up the clock and giving Peyton Manning less time to work with, the coaching on the Broncos last drive should really be submitted to the bad coaching hall of fame. Not only should Romo not have been throwing that close to that deep on their side of the field with time expiring (i.e. prep for OT if there’s nowhere to go), but after Romo made his predictable turnover, Dallas should have either immediately allowed Denver to score on the Demariyus Thomas catch, should have declined the holding penalty that gave Peyton Manning and extra down to throw and at the very least have allowed them to score on 3-1 two yards out from the endzone. Of course they did none of those things and ended up losing the game.
Again, in the end, Romo will always be Romo, but even though he is unpredictable and untrustworthy, there are quarterbacks with that DNA who have found success in the NFL. One only has to look across the division at Eli Manning and the New York Giants. The difference is that at least the coaching in New York is competent wheras in Dallas, it is downright awful and has been for years. What Dallas needs more than a new quarterback is a new coach with some winning experience and perhaps even a Superbowl pedigree. I hate the fact that the Cowboys let Rob Ryan, Sean Payton and Bill Parcells walk, yet kept a tight hold of Jason Garrett. It was there single biggest mistake over the last ten years and the ship in Dallas won’t be right until he has been made to walk the plank.
