I will admit I was a little worried last week. I was betting on my beloved Cowboys (who almost never cover when favoured) and taking the Steelers who were playing without playmaker and lucky charm Troy Polomalu (the team is drastically under .500 when he does not suit up). However, thanks to some big play out of the Dallas Defense, the Bengals shaky play calling and the will of the gambling Gods, I was fortunate enough to end the week with another 4-1 outing. Contrary to the last couple of weeks, this week does feature some juicy lines so lets get right to them….
AROUND THE LEAGUE (HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) over PHILLY EAGLES
I know the Eagles roster is stacked, the team is playing at home and Andy Reid has an amazing record when coming off the bye week, but there is something I do not trust about the Eagles. Until Michael Vick proves himself with a top to bottom solid performance there is nothing to trust about this team. Not only that but look at what this line is saying. This line is saying that this rag-tag Philly team is favoured to win over the only undefeated team in the league that is clicking on all cyclinders. Really Vegas experts? While I certainly don’t trust the Atlanta Falcons, do trust them much more then the Eagles at this point. It still isn’t an overly confident bet given Reid’s post bye week performances, but with this Eagles squad, it is still good enough of a bet.
Oakland Raiders (+1) over Kansas City Cheifs
Remind me again why Kansas City is favoured in this one? I know they are playing at home but this team has looked brutal in every game they have played in and have just made the decision to bench their starting QB Matt Cassell in favour of unproven Brady Quinn. The Raiders are no powerhouse, but they do have a number of playmakers on both sides of the ball (especially up-and-coming wide receiver Denarius Moore), have been in a number of close contests these season (including taking Atlanta to the wire) and thus, if Carson Palmer is not absolutely atrocious in this one, feel confident taking in taking the Raiders.
BRONZE PICK
New England Patriots (-6.5) over St. Louis Rams
Despite the NFL insistence, I refuse to acknowledge this as a home game for the Rams. How could it be, because last time I checked St. Louis wasn’t a stone’s throw away from Buckingham Palace. To me this game is an away game for both teams, and if anything with New England’s shorter travel time across the pond (I hate that term by the way), if anything it is a home game for the Patriots. In any event, the dubiousness of the locale aside, the Patriots are facing a ton of criticism from across the NFL with people questioning them in a way not seen since 2003. That criticism is all bogus and you want to know why, because if the Patriots were pitted against the Texans right now, the odds would be set in the Patriots favour. In fact, the Patriots win that match-up probably 99 times out a hundred. Until they lose by more than 7 points to any team in the AFC they are still the class of that conference. Right now the Patriots have their backs against the wall due to all the heat they have been taking, and no one plays better under that type of scrutiny then the Patriots (at least in the regular season). Feel confident taking the Pats in this one and I would not be surprised if they won this game in a rout.
SILVER PICK
New York Giants (-1) OVER DALLAS COWBOYS
One of the best things about the spread is that it moves. I guess that can work both ways but earlier in the week when I was getting plus one on the Giants and it moved down I tell you it doesn’t get much better than that. However, for those of you that missed out, you did not miss much as the Giants are absolutely rolling right now, and whether they are giving a point or getting a point it doesn’t really matter, they are not losing this game. Add to this that Dallas’ is really hurting right now with the loss of Demarco Murray, Phil Costa and now Sean Lee and the fact that their homefield advantage is actually anything but, and you have the makings of fantastic opportunity.
GOLD PICK
San Diego Chargers (-1 or -2.5) OVER CLEAVLAND BROWNS
To be honest with you I do not know what the odds on this one will be when it comes time for you to place a bet. Earlier in the week the Chargers were giving two and half points, then only one and then back to two and half. However, that fanatic Brown fan aside, this is hopefully a game that San Diego wins handily. The Chargers have lost two straight but both losses had strange circumstances surrounding them and aside from the games the Chargers have looked decent this season. The Browns on the otherhand have as usual only had one look to them; putrid. It is my hope that you are able to take the Chargers only giving up 1, but even if you have to give up 2.5 it is still not a terrible situation as again, the Browns look terrible in all three phases of the game and thus this is a very winnable game for San Diego.
