HUNDYSPOT.COM

Ok, so a bit of a rough go last week, but the first couple of weeks to the NFL season are always tough (plus David Akers missing two field goals for the Lions did not help much either). In any event, let’s try and right the ship. As always home team in CAPS

PICK 1

Rams +4 OVER COWBOYS

Dallas had a heart breaking game last week. For anyone who watched it, it seemed like Dallas was in total control of this game and then as they almost always do, let it slip away. Hats off to KC, but if Dallas doesn’t sustain to brutal turnovers, Dez Bryant does not drop that deep ball and Jason Garrett does not decide to kick the late field goal (which still left them down by one) instead of going for the touchdown late, Dallas easily wins that game. However, the previous season is the 2007 to present Dallas Cowboys in a nutshell, so while I think they beat the Rams, I doubt they cover the spread while doing it. Take the points and the Rams

PICK 2

Giants +1 OVER PANTHERS

Ok I know the Giants have looked shaky in their first two starts and that they have no run game, but what this game means for the Giants is that if they lose, they are going to be 0-3 and likely to miss the playoffs (although they do play in the now weaker NFC East). This is a very tough pick to make given how bad the Giants played of late and how good the Panthers looked at home against Seattle. My mind says the Panthers, but given that the Giants have alligator blood, I have to take the Giants because of what this game means to them.

BRONZE PICK

Lions +1 OVER REDSKINS

I have no idea how the Redskins are giving points in this game. Through two weeks there defense has been the worst defense I have ever seen and the lions were a couple of makeable field goals away from being 2-0. Plus the Lions have a very good defense that should be all over the hobbled RG 3 early. To me this is a no-brainer. Take the Lions.

SILVER PICK

Atlanta +1 OVER MIAMI

Look, I know Miami’s record says they are 2-0, but there record is flimsier than Jason Garrett’s decision to kick that late field goal instead of going for it against the Chiefs late (sorry to pile it on fellow Cowboys fans, but that game really stung). Atlanta was one endzone drop against the Saints from being 2-0 and these are the kind of games the Falcons live for, early season against suspect opposition. Miami has looked ok this season, but given all of the weapon’s in Atlanta’s arsenal, the smart money is on them.

GOLD PICK

Colts +10 OVER 49ERS

I had planned on making the Packers at -2.5 over the Bengals my gold pick, but I could not resist taking the new look Colts with 10 points over the 49ers. I know, the 49ers got their rears handed to them against Seattle and are looking for redemption at home, but with Trent Richardson in the backfield for the Colts they have a boosted run game and a back who can block for Andrew Luck. Unless there is something seriously wrong with Trent Richardson other than Randy Moss Syndrome (i.e. he will only be motivated in the right environment) this was a huge pick up for the Colts who have been searching for a franchise back  since the departure of Edgerrin James. If the offensive line can hold against the 49ers pass rushers, and Boldin can be shut down the way he was against Seattle, this can even be a winnable game for the Colts. This is the kind of game where legends are made, so if Andrew Luck truly is the future, I want to see it Sunday. Or at least for him not to lose by more than 10.

Although going 3-5 last week, it is worth noting that I was one dropped Atlanta pass and one less Giants turnover away from going 5-0. But because batting .600 is fairly good, that coupled with my beloved Cowboys actually winning a home game they were favored to win, had me feeling good all week. Let’s see if we (me and the Cowboys) can continue our winning ways this week. As always HOME TEAM IN CAPS.

PICK 1

Titans +9 OVER TEXANS

I am not sure that I get the Vegas logic here. So the Tennessee upset Pittsburgh with a strong defensive showing and Houston needs an improbable 3 touchdown miracle just to scrape by a terrible San Diego team, and somehow the latter is favoured by 9 points? It doesn’t even matter that this game is at home, 9 points? Be smart, take the points and be happy.

PICK 2

COLTS -1 OVER Dolphins

Okay, what this line means for all you gambling novices out there, is that Indy must win at home against Miami. That’s it. That’s all you need to know. I cannot understand how exactly Miami plans to put up points against a potent Indy offence. Miami cannot run, they cannot pass and unless their defense plans to put up all of their points for them, I cannot fathom where they are even going to get 13 points from. Although Indy did not look great against the Raiders they, like all good teams, found a way to win. Your decision therefore is broken down to which is the better team? As such bet on the Colts.

BRONZE PICK

Redskins +9.5 OVER PACKERS

Like most people I do like high scoring games (as long as my opponent’s fantasy team has 0 players in that tilt), and this weeks’ Redskins-Packers game promises to be a good one. Although I love Green Bay to win this game outright given their loss last week to San Fran, the Packers of late seem to rise and fall with the level of their competition. For example, if they are playing a good team, they will play a close game against them and if they play a bad team, they will play a poor close game against them. Either way the games seem to be fairly close and Green Bay seems to win a tight one either way (except when they play San Fran). As such, a line that gives 9.5 point to the Redskins is a tough pill to swallow given that even an injured RG3 puts up points and his defense and run game always manage to put up points even if he is slacking. As such you should be smart here and  take the points.

SILVER PICK

Lions -1 OVER CARDINALS

I love the Lions this year. They have looked great all preseason and except for a boneheaded play by Ndamukong Suh last week which contributed to a 14 point swing in a game they still managed to win, it looked as if they are poised for a great season. Their defensive front 7 look amazing, their entire offensive looks explosive and if they could simply get someone in their defensive backfield they will be a force to be reckoned with. These are not your Matt Millen Lions. And although the Cardinals look better this season under Carson Palmer, the Lions should win this game handily if they can simply keep Larry Fitzgerald in check.

GOLD PICK

49ers +3 OVER SEAHAWKS

Contrary to what some authors think, there IS such a thing as momentum in football. With the way things turned around in the second half of their big game in January, the 49ers would have needed only a few more plays to win the Superbowl. Sadly however for them and all 49ers fans, the clock ticked down and to quote Marlon Brando, “There just wasn’t enough time.” This season with redemption on their brain, the 49ers are poised for a very deep playoff run. Not only have they kept virtually their entire roster together, but they actually managed to improve upon it with the additions of Anquan Boldin and once heralded corner Nmandi Asomugha. The only team standing in their way (you mean other than my beloved Cowboys?), the Seattle Seahawks. Believe me this game will have the feel of much more than a normal week 2 game. These teams hate each other and cannot wait to get the first game of their eventual rubber match underway. However, despite what most people say, I am not completely sold on the Seahawks. They looked weak last week against Carolina, and although they are playing at home I do not trust Wilson in this game and am not sold on the Seahawks in general. I think the road to the NFC title goes through San Fran, and so even though this game is being played in Seattle, make the right move and take the points…I mean 49ers.

While you may be tired having had to stay up until almost 1 last night, what a way for the NFL to announce it’s return for the 2013 season. And although you may be lamenting not being able to bet on the Broncos I have 5 welcome back NFL picks for you in Week 1 (HOME TEAM IN CAPS)…

PICK 1- Atlanta Falcons (+3) OVER SAINTS

Although Atlanta’s latest playoff flame-out is probably still resonating with some, the regular season is back and Atlanta is a stellar regular season team. Not only that, but they have an upgraded running game, an incredible passing offense against the Saints weak defense, and a much better defense overall then the Saints. Even if the Saints eek out a win against the Falcons in the wake of the Sean Payton-Drew Brees reunion, it is doubtful that it will be by more than 3 points.

PICK 2- Raiders (+10.5) OVER COLTS

Look, I love the Andrew Luck Colts. I still maintain he should have gotten some MVP consideration for how he turned around the Colts and took them to the playoffs last year. However, while the Raiders are bad (and they are really bad), this is the kind of game that the Raiders always seem competitive in until the end. Do I think they will win? No, but I do they think will do enough with a fleetingly healthy RunDMc to cover the spread.

BRONZE PICK- Cardinals (+4.5) OVER RAMS

Even after an entire preseason and looking over their roster just now, I cannot for the life of me understand how the Rams put up points this season. Unless Jared Cook suddenly were to become Antonio Gates 2.0, this Rams team will struggle to put up 12 points a week. Arizona on the other hand, should be much improved this year, and the new Carson Palmer to Larry Fitzgerald combo this year could be very potent. There is nothing to look forward to this season on the Rams, except maybe the slim chance that Isiah Pead somehow emerges into the new franchise Running Back with the departure of Steven Jackson.

SILVER PICK- Eagles (+3.5) OVER REDSKINS

I know the press loves him, but I am still not sold on the RG3 hype. I have said it once and I will say it again, never trust a mobile/read option quarterback. Not only do they always get hurt and have suspect passing skills, but facts are facts, in the 13 plus seasons since the mobile/read-option quarterback has become the fad, not a single one has ever won a Superbowl. And perhaps the day will come when front offices are all pressured by the media into only drafting these guys, until the drop back/statue quarterbacks  show any kind of limitations when it comes to winning Superbowls, never drink the Kool-Aid. Add to the fact that RG3 is still unproven after his injury and that the Eagles should be much improved under Chip Kelly, and I cannot see how the Redskins beat the Eagles by 4 or more. Be smart, take the points.

GOLD PICK- NY Giants (+3.5) OVER COWBOYS

I love the Cowboys and consider myself to be a die-hard Cowboys fan. However, after watching too many games in the Tony Romo era I can tell you with a chest full of sadness that there is no way the Cowboys beat any .500 team by 4 points, especially in a game they are favored to win. I do not use the expression “bet the house” very often, but if you have a house you should promptly take the points and slap it down on the Giants. The Cowboys still have too many question marks along their offensive line and  within their safety positions, and although Tony Romo will once again put up fantastic numbers, either he or some other cowboy will commit a terrible error which will cost Dallas this game. However, should Dallas give me an early Christmas present and manage to win the game on a late score, you can be  sure that it will not be enough to cover the spread.

ENJOY AND PLEASE GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY

Although it seems like it was just the other day that the 49ers were choking away the Superbowl, here we are with another season upon us. More importantly (at least for some), it’s the start of a new fantasy football season. In short, it is the chance to get in arguments with your friends, ignore your family on Sundays (and Monday night), have your production at work by exactly half and all around blow tens to hundreds of hours over a prize pool of $500.00. What a time to be alive.

In any event here are my thoughts for the 2013 season.

QUARTERBACK

If I have one piece of advice surrounding the Quarterback position it is this; Don’t believe the Hype. Although the talent pool might be deeper, there are still only three premiere quarterbacks in fantasy football today and their names are Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. After you should be aware that there is significant drop to the next tier of quarterbacks and after that an even steeper drop in terms of both production and reliability. And while I am not saying that Colin Kapernick or Cam Newton will not put up numbers, but in taking them know that they, like most mobile quarterbacks will be prone to injury, bad decision making and tremendous inconsistency.

TIER 1

Brew Brees

Aaron Rodgers

TIER 2

Tom Brady

TIER 3

Matt Ryan

Tony Romo

Peyton Manning

TIER 4

Joe Flacco

Jay Cutler

TIER 5

RG3

Colin Kapernick

Cam Newton

Sleeper: Andrew Luck                    Bust: Colin Capernick

RUNNING BACK

Although there is a lot of talent at the running back position, unless you have the first pick in your draft and land Adrian Peterson, your expectations in terms of the #2 through #7 picks at running back should not be all that different. As I always advocate, running back is the diciest position in fantasy football and you should be wary putting a lot of stock into the position for three very good reasons 1) injury 2) inconsistency year-to-year 3) the dreaded (but increasingly popular) running back by committee. As such always remember that when it comes to fantasy football running backs, like they say in 1L, Caveat Emptor pal. But on the flipside, what that means is that your flyers should consist of some handy handcuffs of some of the more injury prone backs like C.J. Spiller, Arian Foster, DeMarco Murray and Maurice Jones-Drew.

TIER 1

Adrian Peterson

TIER 2

Marshawn Lynch

Ray Rice

LeSean McCoy

TIER 3

Arian Foster

C.J. Spiller

Doug Martin

TIER 4

Steven Ridley

Trent Richardson

Jamal Charles

TIER 5

Alfred Morris

MJD

Matt Forte

TIER 6

Darren McFadden

Sleeper: Justin Forsett, DeMarco Murray, Lance Dunbar                                Bust: Frank Gore, Montee Ball

WIDE RECIEVER

Given my propensity to favour the air, naturally it is here where I would be telling you to spend your mid-round draft picks or, in the case of an auction draft, your hard earned fantasy dollars. While the talent pool is deep, like quarterback, there is a significant drop off after the top 3 to 4 guys. However, unlike quarterback, if you are smart and draft/spend well even late, you can still get very decent talent for your squad.

TIER 1

Calvin Johnson

TIER 2

Dez Bryant

Julio Jones

A.J. Green

TIER 3

Roddy White

Andre Johnson

Vincent Jackson

Tier 4

Larry Fitzgerald

Reggie Wayne

Mike Wallace

Danny Amendola

Marques Colston

Tier 5

Wes Welker

Demarius Thomas

Tier 6

James Jones

Randall Cobb

Jordy Nelson

TIER 7

Victor Cruz

Brandon Marshall

Hakeem Nicks

Antonio Brown

Pierre Garcon

Sleeper: DeSean Jackson, Stevie Johnson, Torrey Smith, Greg Jennings, Percy Harvin, Terrance Williams

Bust: Eric Decker, Cecil Shorts

TIGHT END

The best kept secret about this year is the following; tight-end is the make or break position for your league. Almost every league in fantasy has a spot dedicated year-in, year-out dedicated to the tight-end spot. Usually people do not pay much mind to filling spot, and figure that there is a ton of talent at the position and almost anyone will do. These people could not be more wrong. Just like quarterback, you only get one tight end in most leagues, and as such a solid TE can be all the difference given that a super-solid tight-end like Jimmy Graham will get almost double the production out of the roster spot then a solid tight-end like Owen Daniels. As such heed my advice and snatch up a good TE while you can because this year, perhaps more than in recent memory they are rare.

TIER 1

Jimmy Graham

TIER 2

Jason Whitten

Tony Gonzalez

TIER 3

Rob Gronkowski (due to injury)

TIER 4

Vernon Davis

TIER 5

Kyle Rudolph

TIER 6

Owen Daniels

Jermichael Finley

Greg Olsen

Sleeper: Health Miller, Jordan Cameron, Heath Miller, Jared Cook                     Bust: Fred Davis, Martellus Bennett